Experts vs. Everyday Americans
The 2020 Presidential Election
Exclusive Survey
Economic issues will be top of mind for many Americans as we head toward the 2020 presidential election. Presidents seeking a second term often center their re-election bids on convincing voters that they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Bankrate asked a nationally representative sample of Americans how their financial situations have changed since Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election. Do people’s personal experiences align with the economic indicators and political talking points?
Most people say their financial situation has stayed about the same. They also shared what economic issues — health care and employment — matter most to them in the upcoming election and whether President Trump or his predecessor, President Barack Obama, is more responsible for our historic economic expansion.
A number of experts shared their thoughts with us on how Americans are doing under the Trump presidency and what issues are likely to be key in the months ahead. See how the experts’ responses compared with answers from everyday Americans.
Section
1
How are Americans' Personal Finances Faring
Under a Trump Presidency?
Americans Have a More Dismal View of Their
Finances Than Experts Predict
Republicans More Likely To Say Things Improved; Democrats,
Independents Closely
Aligned
…the tax cut mainly benefited the wealthy and the trade war is now threatening to unwind some of the gains.
Julia
Coronado
President and Founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives
Men Report Better Financial Success Since Trump Took Office
Higher Income Households Fared Better
It depends on what Americans we are talking about. The recovery has continued and a strong labor market has benefited a broader group of people, but the tax cut mainly benefited the wealthy and the trade war is now threatening to unwind some of the gains.
Julia Coronado
President and Founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives
There is a balance between short-term gains and long-term creation of opportunities. Deregulation and lower taxes stimulating the economy is a good thing for many American families. Generally speaking, policies that put more money in the pockets of working class Americans should be beneficial to their overall financial health. A possible trade war with China may create short-term pain, but may, in fact, generate greater long-term opportunities for American businesses and therefore American families. However, debt is rising, the stability of Social Security is still an issue, and many American families are struggling to create financial security.
Brent Weiss
co-founder, Facet Wealth
More Americans are working and wages have risen while the U.S. economy has continued to expand, as evidenced in GDP growth. While household debt has also risen, these balance sheets are generally regarded to be in good shape.
Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief and Senior Economic Analyst, Bankrate.com
Section
2
Everyday Americans and Experts Rank the Most Important
Financial Issues in the
2020 Presidential Election
How Important are These Issues in the Next Election
Everyday Americans: Financial Concerns Differ by Political Affiliation
Trade will get resolved by the election, but U.S. government debt may be more important than all of the above.
Tom Lydon
Co-CEO, ETFtrends.com, ETFdb.com
Women More Concerned With Financial Issues
Millennials are the Most Concerned Generation
Section
3
Everyday Americans and Experts Weigh in on Who Is to Credit for Decade-Long Economic Expansion
Everyday Americans Credit Trump, Experts Say Otherwise
Republicans More Likely to Credit Trump Than Democrats Credit Obama
The hard work, entrepreneurship and motivation for Americans to better themselves drives the economy in large part.
Robert
Frick
Corporate Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union
High Earners More Likely to Credit President Trump
Opinions Differ by Generation
As is the case with most economists, I recognize that presidents do not generally determine the economy’s course. The economy is a $20 trillion behemoth, which is tough to influence. The hard work, entrepreneurship and motivation for Americans to better themselves drives the economy in large part. To say the health of the economy is due to this president or that president underweights our largely capitalist system that is based on the workforce. The Federal Reserve usually has a more direct influence, especially during significant tightening or loosening cycles.
Robert Frick
Corporate Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union
I'll begin by saying that presidents don't always have as large an impact on the economy as is sometimes touted, including by the office holders themselves. But President Obama presided over a longer stretch of the expansion given that President Trump is coming up on three years in office. Obama's selection of Janet Yellen as Fed Chair helped to generate monetary policy which helped the economy to grow. Many economists now say that risks are tilted to the downside for the U.S. economy, so the final chapter(s) on the Trump presidency have yet to be written.
Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief and Senior Economic Analyst, Bankrate.com
The U.S. economy is inherently adaptive and rebounds from recessions. Although tax cuts by both presidents helps, the Fed's aggressive monetary easing was probably even more important.
Lynn Reaser
Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University
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About this survey
Meet the Author
Adrian D. Garcia joined Bankrate as a data reporter in 2018. Adrian previously spent four years covering business, trends and other news stories for Denverite.com, the Fort Collins Coloradoan and other news organizations in Colorado. He graduated with a journalism degree from the University of Colorado Boulder in 2014. He participated in ProPublica's inaugural summer data institute in 2016 and the SABEW Goldschmidt Data Immersion Training in 2019.
About the Survey
This study was conducted for Bankrate via telephone by SSRS on its Omnibus survey platform. The SSRS Omnibus is a national, weekly, dual-frame bilingual telephone survey. Interviews were conducted from September 3-8, 2019 among a sample of 1,017 respondents in English (982) and Spanish (35). Telephone interviews were conducted by landline (308) and cell phone (709, including 493 without a landline phone). The margin of error for total respondents is +/-3.37% at the 95% confidence level. All SSRS Omnibus data are weighted to represent the target population.
Meet the Experts
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Brent Weiss
Co-Founder, Facet Wealth
Brent Weiss is Chief Evangelist and co-founder of Facet Wealth, a next-generation financial services firm that breaks down the cost barrier to financial planning for mass-affluent households. Brent is the founding financial planning member of Facet Wealth and has been instrumental in designing the firm's planning technology and financial life planning experience since the firm's start in 2016.
Brent is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP®) professional and a Chartered Financial Consultant® (ChFC®) and has dedicated his career to serving others through his profession.
Before joining Facet Wealth, Brent was a principal at an independent wealth management firm. There he served as a lead planner, chaired the investment committee, and coached and mentored next-generation advisors.
Brent holds a Bachelor's of Business Administration from the University of Notre Dame.
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Greg Valliere
Chief US Strategist, AGF Investments,
Greg Valliere is Chief US Strategist at AGF Investments, the Toronto-based investment firm. He has been following Washington for investors for 40 years and is a frequent guest on Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business Network and CNN.
-
Julia Coronado
President and Founder, MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC
Julia Coronado is founder of the economic research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives and is also a Clinical Associate Professor of Finance at the University of Texas at Austin and blogs for the Rutgers Business School. Prior to starting MPP Julia was Chief Economist for Graham Capital Management and BNP Paribas, and a Senior Economist at Barclays Capital. Julia worked for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington D.C. She is a member of the Economic Advisory Panel of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Board of Directors of the National Association of Business Economists, the Economic Studies Council at the Bookings Institution and is on the Board of Directors of Robert Half International. She serves on the Advisory Boards of the Pension Research Council at the Wharton School and the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research. Julia holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Texas at Austin. Julia is a regular commentator in financial media, including CNBC, Bloomberg, Marketplace, and the Wall Street Journal.
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Marilyn Cohen
CEO, Envision Capital Management
Marilyn Cohen is one of the country’s top bond managers. She began her 40-year financial career as a securities analyst at William O’Neil & Co. She moved into bond brokerage at Cantor Fitzgerald, Inc. then founded Envision Capital Management 24 years ago. As Envision’s CEO, Marilyn and her company specializes in managing bond portfolios for individuals. During this same 24 years Marilyn has written the bond column appearing in Forbes magazine. She is the author of six books on the bond market investing for individuals—all available at Amazon.com.
Marilyn is a popular guest on CNBC, Fox Business News, PBS, and each of the major broadcast networks. Her comments—always explained in plain English—guide individuals through the inner workings of the bond market.
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Robert Frick
Corporate Economist, Navy Federal Credit Union
Robert Frick is corporate economist for Navy Federal Credit Union, the largest credit union in the world. Prior to joining Navy Federal, Robert was senior editor for Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine.
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Mark Hamrick
Washington Bureau Chief and Senior Economic Analyst, Bankrate.com
Mark Hamrick is Washington Bureau Chief and Senior Economic Analyst for Bankrate.com, operating out of the National Press Building in the shadow of The White House and U.S. Treasury. He is best known for his analysis of the economy, including the job market, and the Federal Reserve and writes about those subjects for Bankrate. You might see him asking a question at a Washington news conference, hear him discussing these topics and more on the radio, see him on television or read his name and analysis in print.
He is a national award-winning business and financial news journalist, who came to Bankrate after leading business news for Broadcast at the Associated Press in Washington for nearly 20 years.
Mark has served as president of SABEW, the leading association of business and financial journalists. He previously was president of the National Press Club. In both capacities, he has been a vocal advocate for press freedom and for transparency.
A native of Kansas, Mark began his career in journalism as a high school student working in radio in his hometown of Coffeyville. Mark lives in Potomac, Md., with his wife Jeanne.
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Lynn Reaser
Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene UniversityDr. Lynn Reaser is the Chief Economist for the Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University. The Institute engages in economic analysis, modeling, and forecasting for corporations, non-profit organizations, and government agencies.
Dr. Reaser, a leading spokesperson for the University, conducts over 150 media interviews annually, including newspapers, magazines, television, radio, and the internet. She contributes to a numbers of financial and economic surveys, including those of CNBC, Bloomberg, and the Wall Street Journal. She also addresses numerous domestic and international conferences and forecast events.
She is presently a member of the PLNU School of Business Faculty, teaching managerial economics in the MBA program. Involved in public policy, she was the Chief Economist of the Council of Economic Advisors for California State Treasurer John Chiang during the past four years and is currently a member of the Economic Advisory Council for the California Chamber of Commerce.
Dr. Reaser is active in many professional organizations including serving as past President of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), which has also named her a Fellow for her contributions to the profession. She received the NABE Outlook Award for the most accurate economic forecast in 2011-12 and served as Chair of the NABE Foundation during the last few years.
From 1999 to 2009, she served as the Chief Economist for the Bank of America Investment Strategies Group. Dr. Reaser provided the global and U.S. economic framework for investment strategy for high net-worth, institutional, and brokerage clients, encompassing over $500 billion under management.
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Tom Lydon
Co-CEO, ETFtrends.com, ETFdb.comTom Lydon is Co-CEO of ETFtrends.com and ETFdb.com, two of the most respected online ETF educational and research platforms and largest producer of ETF related webcasts and virtual conferences.
Lydon started ETF Trends in 2005 on the heels of founding Global Trends Investments, an asset management firm located in Orange County, CA.
Lydon is a frequent market commentator on CNBC, Fox Business Network and Bloomberg TV. He is also a contributor to major print, radio and television media including Forbes, The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investment News. For the past two years, Lydon has been named by Investopedia as one of the Top 100 Most Influential Advisors in the country.
As the author of iMoney and The ETF Trend Following Playbook, Lydon is a highly sought-after speaker and ETF influencer. He serves as a trustee on the Guggenheim Funds Board and the Harvest Volatility Funds Board and is also a director on the US Global Investors (GROW) corporate board.
