Case-Shiller Index: Home-price gains hit another all-time high

U.S. home prices just keep setting new records, although the pace of growth has slowed a bit. S&P CoreLogic’s latest Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, released March 25, shows annual home-price growth increased in January by 4.1 percent. That’s up only slightly from December’s 4 percent — but it’s enough to mark the 20th all-time high in a row.

Case-Shiller Index shows prices still rising, but more slowly

In addition to the 4.1 percent overall increase, January home values also increased annually by other measures. Case-Shiller’s 10-city index was up 5.3 percent for the year, and the 20-city index rose 4.7 percent. After seasonal adjustment, all three indices — national, 10-city and 20-city — were up slightly from December to January.

“The current cycle reinforces the value of real estate as a long-duration asset — but also highlights how sensitive home prices are to changes in financing conditions and buyer affordability,” Nicholas Godec of S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a statement.

Regional fluctuation continues

Cities scattered across the East, West and Midwest all earned top spots in price growth for January. New York City, a laggard during the pandemic, remained at the head of the pack. The New York metro area reported an annual gain of 7.75 percent. After New York, the metro areas with biggest increases were:

• Chicago (7.52 percent)
• Boston (6.55 percent)
• Cleveland (6.45 percent)
• Detroit (5.73 percent)
• Las Vegas (5.49 percent)
• Seattle (5.47 percent)

Prices fell in just one major metro area: Tampa was down 1.51 percent, continuing the previous month’s decline.

Historically, the picture has looked different. For 20 years — January 2005 through January 2025 — Seattle had the highest appreciation at 175 percent. Other strong performers included Dallas (up 152 percent in two decades) and Charlotte (up 145 percent).

Nationally, appreciation was 102 percent. Meanwhile, cumulative inflation was 66 percent over that timeframe.

The bottom five included Chicago (41 percent appreciation over two decades), Las Vegas (45 percent) and Minneapolis (48 percent).

The Fed and the housing market

The Federal Reserve announced its first interest-rate cut in years in September 2024, and two more followed by the time the year was done. But before that, its aggressive moves to combat inflation — with 10 consecutive rate hikes over 2022 and 2023 — put upward pressure on mortgage rates, even as inflation declined. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, the mortgage market’s interpretations of the central bank’s moves influence how much you pay for your home loan.

The long period of low mortgage rates following the Great Recession came to an end in 2022. In June 2022, rates topped 6 percent for the first time since 2008. The upward trend continued through October 2023, when rates hit a 23-year high of 8 percent.

Higher rates also exacerbate the housing shortage, stopping many homeowners from selling when they otherwise might — and thus keeping those homes off the market and out of the supply of available housing.

“The remarkable rise in mortgage rates is acting as a kind of golden handcuffs,” says Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. Higher rates are “limiting the desire and some of the ability of people to move out of the homes they currently own. That further pressures housing inventory, adding insult to supply injury.”

While that effect may ease up as the market adjusts and mortgage rates inch downward, for now rates remain elevated: As of March 19, 2025, Bankrate’s weekly lender survey puts the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.76 percent.

What the Case-Shiller Index means for homebuyers and sellers

Affordability remains a hurdle, especially for first-time buyers, and price appreciation might be reaching its logical peak. “Higher mortgage rates, along with high home prices, have exacerbated affordability challenges and led to slower home price appreciation,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a listing service covering the Mid-Atlantic region. “Even as mortgage rates come down, it is likely that home prices will not grow as fast this year as they have over the past couple of years. More inventory has been coming onto the market, which gives buyers more leverage and room for negotiation.”

However, that doesn’t mean buyers can expect major bargains any time soon. “Those who are very motivated to purchase a home should be prepared for the sticker shock associated with the increased expense of financing the purchase,” Hamrick says. “Part of the flexibility that may be required includes seeking a possible downgrade of footprint or quality of home, along with the neighborhood, in order to achieve an affordable purchase.”