Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for June 27 - July 3, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 31% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 54% |
| Go down | 15% |
Don’t expect much movement in mortgage rates this week says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 54 percent of respondents predict rates will stay flat, 31 percent expect rates to rise and just 15 percent expect rates to drop.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.02 percent as of June 26, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down slightly from last week’s average of 7.03.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of June 27 - July 3, 2024
| Go up | 31% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 54% |
| Go down | 15% |
With little data to move markets this week, bonds are mostly stable, moving up a bit on Fed members' comments that they don’t expect the rate of inflation to drop sufficiently any time soon for a rate cut. It will take more evidence of a cooling economy and moderating rate of inflation for mortgage rates to take the next step downward.
— Melissa Cohn, William Raveis Mortgage
31% say rates will go up
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
The yields on the 2-year and 10-year Treasurys are both up from last week. Also, the yield curve remains inverted — no surprise here. All of these will come together and result in higher mortgage rates. Next week, long-term mortgage rates will move higher. Until the yield curve reverts to its normal upward slope, we will not see significant downward pressure on mortgage rates.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
I anticipate rates to go higher given light volume ahead of the holiday and a surprise on PCE report this Friday.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida
Bonds have gotten a little tired since last week. There are several things that can be contributing, which also includes some hotter inflation numbers from Canada and Australia. Technicals also indicate that bonds are overbought, and more selling pressure may drive rates a little higher next week, which could also be exacerbated by a shorter trading week due to Independence Day. Many of the trading professionals will likely be out of the office for vacation.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. The mortgage rate yo-yo will continue. Following a short period of declines, rates will follow the 10-year Treasury higher.
15% say rates will go down
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The Fed’s preferred inflation metric comes out Friday, so we should see a decline in bond yields and mortgage rates with more evidence of slowing inflation.
54% say unchanged–
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
Despite the lack of market-moving economic data, mortgage rates have drifted only slightly higher this week. That’s not surprising considering mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in months last week. The upcoming PCE — or Personal Consumption Expenditures — report this Friday has the potential to move rates, but only if it comes in different than what is forecast. After that, we have next week's Non-Farm Payroll report as a potential market mover. For the coming week I don’t see a lot of surprises, so mortgage rates will remain flat in the coming week.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates will stay rangebound this week until the PCE Index for May is released. With little data to move markets this week, bonds are mostly stable, moving up a bit on Fed members' comments that they don’t expect the rate of inflation to drop sufficiently any time soon for a rate cut. It will take more evidence of a cooling economy and moderating rate of inflation for mortgage rates to take the next step downward.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go nowhere. Here's a parody of "Shake It Off" to mark Taylor’s Eras Tour over the weekend in London. "Trend breakers gonna break, break, break, break, break. And the fakers gonna fake, fake, fake, fake, fake. Maybe bonds are gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake. Bulls shake it off." When will the market shake off its patience for tangible news from the U.S. while the EU smolders? For now, the balance holds amid mixed domestic views.
Allison Kaminaga
Lecturer of Mathematics and Economics, Bryant University , Smithfield , RI
I expect mortgage rates to stay relatively flat ahead of Friday's inflation report.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Rates will remain flat unless GDP comes in over 2.00 percent. The last print was 1.3 percent.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
Rates will stay flat once again into the next week With a relatively uninspired market, we just are not seeing much in the way of rate relief or even an upward spike. Flat is the new happy norm! I suspect this might be the case through the remainder of summer.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Unchanged.