Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for April 3 - 9, 2025

Robert Brusca

Chief Economist, Facts and Opinions Economics , New York , NY

Higher.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Up. New jobs were double what economists expected.

Preetam Purohit

CFA, Head of hedging and analytics, Embrace Home Loans , Newport , RI

Mortgage rates are likely to go up in the near future. Mortgages rates have been trading in a nice range for the past month, and we are closer to the lower end of the range currently. We have seen a nice rally in bonds this week. [The] mortgage spread has widened, so the rally for mortgages is not as great as Treasuries. I think we are in the “buy the rumor and sell the news” phase where we will see a pickup in rates later today or tomorrow after the tariffs are announced in the evening.

Michael Becker

Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD

Bonds are selling off today, leading to higher mortgage rates. This [is] after bonds [have been] rallying and mortgage rates improving the last few days while stocks sold off on concern that tariffs will negatively impact the economy. This may be a one-day move on hopes that the tariffs will be more moderate or thoughtful instead of the aggressive tariffs that Trump is threatening trade partners with. I think economic concerns about the tariffs will return and lead to lower rates in the coming week.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

I’m expecting rates to decline in the week ahead following more clarity regarding the administration’s economic policies.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

In early January, the yield on 10-year Treasury notes was around 4.8 percent. It is now finally under 4.2 percent. This decline has led to a corresponding decline in mortgage rates. All else equal, downward momentum should continue, and we will see a continuing slow decline in both Treasury yields and mortgage rates. Next week, long-term mortgage rates should be down.

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Lower. The uncertainties resulting from the effects of tariffs will be mitigated, and rates will move a bit lower.

Richard Martin

Director of Home Lending, Curinos

Given the level of uncertainty this week with Tariff Judgment Day and their impact on growth projections, I think rates will end the week lower given a flight-to-safety bid on bonds by investors.

Greg McBride, CFA

Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL

Worries about an economic slowdown continue to tug bond yields and mortgage rates lower.

Denise McManus

Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers

With inflation hanging around and continued signs of economic weakness, we could see lower interest rates this month. I’m not expecting much of a decline, but small trickles of reductions.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody of “Everybody Plays The Fool,” The Main Ingredient’s 1972 hit. "Oil says tariffs make prices go wild. Well, before it panics and crashes. Dig this. Everybody plays the fool sometimes. There's no exception to the rule.” Expect a significant decline in mortgage rates, fueled by a drop in crude oil prices.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

Employment numbers as well as inflation numbers continue to be kind to the bond markets. Since peaking at 4.39 percent last week, the 10-year Treasury fell as low as 4.11 percent on Wednesday.

Derek Egeberg

Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ

Unchanged. The seesaw continues as the stock market is wrestling with what tariffs will do to the equities market. As the stock market softens, look for bonds to recover slightly. However, the net effect over the last week is “no change."

Dr. Anthony O. Kellum

President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI

In light of the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, along with its projection of two potential rate cuts later this year, interest rates are expected to remain stable in the short term. While the upcoming April 2 tariff announcement from the Trump administration could influence the broader economic landscape, any resulting inflationary pressures are likely to unfold gradually. For the coming week, rates are most likely to stay unchanged. Unless the tariffs lead to a significant and sustained increase in inflation or major disruptions to supply chains, the housing market is unlikely to experience immediate impacts. Still, this is a development worth watching closely, especially if the trade policies expand or escalate.

Nicole Rueth

Market Leader, The Rueth Team of Movement Mortgage , Denver , CO

Rates will remain unchanged. With a high level of uncertainty as to the outcome of the tariffs later today as well as the jobs report on Friday, I believe rates will trade in a narrow range considering they are already at the lowest they have been in nearly a month. Having said that, should the tariff announcement be worse than feared, there will be a flight to safety, resulting in lower mortgage rates. ADP numbers released this morning did little for bond movement as job gains were stronger than expected, offset by wage pressure declining to the lowest level since June 2021. All eyes are now on the slowing economy and tariff outcomes.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. Rates seem to have settled slightly into a fairly stable range over the last couple of weeks, and I expect them to stay there.