Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for July 11 - 17, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 7% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 21% |
| Go down | 71% |
As we inch closer to the next Fed meeting on July 31, expect rates to drop, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 71 percent of respondents predict rates will fall in the coming week. The remaining 29 percent expect rates to stay flat, while no respondents say rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.04 percent as of July 10, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down from last week’s average of 7.09.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of July 11 - 17, 2024
| Go up | 7% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 21% |
| Go down | 71% |
Everything hinges on inflation. Good CPI numbers will all but cement a September Fed rate cut and bring bond yields and mortgage rates lower. If the numbers disappoint, lower mortgage rates will have to wait.
— Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst
7% say rates will go up
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. I expect rates to rise due to the significant economic and political uncertainty in the United States right now. Although rates will likely continue to “yo-yo,” I believe the persistent upward trend in rates that we have seen over the past several months will continue until we get some significant action from the Federal Reserve.
71% say rates will go down
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are going to drop a bit this week. Mr. Powell’s testimony in Washington stated that rates cannot remain elevated for too long without stunting economic growth. With recent economic data pointing to a cooling economy, the Fed is inching its way closer to the first rate cut of this rate cycle. Don’t expect a cut this month but the odds are much greater now that the first cut could happen in September. Bonds are taking this sentiment to heart and continue to drop slowly. Mortgage rates are following suit.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
Mortgage rates and the yield on 10-year Treasurys have been trending down for the past week. This pattern should hold for next week as well. Next week, long-term mortgage rates should go down, if only slightly.
Allison Kaminaga
Lecturer of Mathematics and Economics, Bryant University , Smithfield , RI
I expect mortgage rates to decrease in the coming week. Last Friday's jobs report confirmed that the labor market is cooling, and tomorrow's CPI report is expected to show a slight decrease in headline inflation.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
I predict rates will end the week lower, with both CPI and PPI reports supporting a continued decreasing inflationary trend and appropriate Fed rate cuts before year-end.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
Everything hinges on inflation. Good CPI numbers will all but cement a September Fed rate cut and bring bond yields and mortgage rates lower. If the numbers disappoint, lower mortgage rates will have to wait.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
Listening to The Fed is like dating someone and not having a clue what they are actually saying! The contradictions between data and the stance of Chairman Powell is a conundrum, to say the least. Or maybe it is just a case of not knowing what to do. They seem hesitant to make any moves while the markets are begging for any sign, hanging on each breath. All this being said, I see the rates looking a bit more favorable in the week ahead.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will fall. Here's a parody of "Too Much, Too Little, Too Late." The 1978 hit duet by Johnny Mathis and Deniece Williams. "Too much, too little, too late to try again with Jay. We're in the middle of ending something that he knew." Investors liked the yield on recent Treasury auctions. They bought the Fed Chairman's "higher for longer" will end not too soon and not too late.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Lower.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Swings in political climate are putting downward pressure on treasury securities and mortgage rates will likely trend down.
21% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Early July has seen 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fall by 0.125 percent. Look for rates to sit near 7.0 percent for the foreseeable future.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Flat. Inflation trends [are] not changing one way or the other.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Mortgage rates rallied after the jobs report showed a bit of weakness last week. This week it is the CPI or Consumer Price Index report that will move markets. If inflation is weaker or less than expected, we will see mortgage rates drop. I think the report will show inflation coming in as expected and as such mortgage rates will hold in their current range. Mortgage rates flat in the coming week.