Rates are likely to drop this week, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 54 percent of respondents predict rates will fall. The remaining respondents were split, with 23 percent saying rates will rise, and 23 percent saying rates will stay where they are.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.81 percent as of April 30, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down slightly from 6.86 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of May 1 - 7, 2025
Experts say rates will...
| Go up | 23% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 23% |
| Go down | 54% |
While factors like inflation and tariffs could introduce volatility, the current trajectory suggests that mortgage rates are on a downward path in the near term.
— Dr. Anthony O. Kellum, Kellum Mortgage
23% say rates will go up
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I anticipate rates to rise slightly in the week ahead in reaction to traders’ fears of potential stagflation.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
The market remains choppy, as such, rates will climb slightly in the week ahead as we wait for the Fed Meeting next week. There is a stronger-than-average opportunity that we will see a rate cut next week. Until then, be on guard.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody of “Under the Bridge,” Red Hot Chili Peppers' 1991 hit. “Bears could not get enough. (Under the Bridge beatdown) Forgot about the Bears (Over the fast breakdown) Bulls get their life restored.” Pending trade deals continue to emit positive signals, which calm the mortgage market. Persistently elevated volatility means a 25 bps move can happen fast.
54% say rates will go down
Michael Becker
Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD
Mortgage rates have continued to improve a bit this week. Tepid economic data and a softening of Trump’s tariff rhetoric are helping rates. Looking forward, the path of mortgage rates over the next week will depend a great deal on the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll report. Since today’s ADP report showed weakness in job creation for April, I expect a similarly weak Non-Farm Payroll report, which will help push mortgage rates lower next week.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
The yield on 10-year Treasurys has fallen for six consecutive trading days, if only slightly. Long-term mortgage rates are highly correlated to 10-year Treasury yields. Going with the trend, next week mortgage rates should be down slightly.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Down. The damage that tariffs are just starting to cause may be causing the administration to back off, at least a little.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
I think mortgage rates will head down this week. Recent trends show a steady drop, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to around 6.60 percent as of April 30, 2025, the lowest we've seen in weeks. This decline is influenced by signs of an economic slowdown, such as a decrease in job openings, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts. Additionally, Fannie Mae has adjusted its mortgage rate outlook, projecting a modest decline to 6.2 percent by the end of 2025. While factors like inflation and tariffs could introduce volatility, the current trajectory suggests that mortgage rates are on a downward path in the near term.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Lower. The 10-year Treasury yield has declined slightly since mid-April. With news that GDP contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2025, it is likely that markets will expect additional Fed rate cuts to provide stimulus; markets will no doubt bake these expected rate cuts into current rates. However, some of this expectation hinges on news related to trade deals and tariffs — if the Trump Administration can claim some wins in the trade arena, the economy may spark without significant rate cuts.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Lower.
23% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. Trump's tariff policy is threatened to be undermined by Amazon considering listing tariff impacts on its prices. These tariffs are what are keeping yields on fixed-income securities high.
James Sahnger
Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL
In the face of soft economic data, bonds improved but not much on Wednesday. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the impact of tariffs, and this could be seen in the ADP Employment Report as new jobs for March showing only 62,000 jobs where 120,000 were expected. Interest rates did improve over the last week, but we’ll have to see more weakness in numbers to go much further from here. Friday’s employment report from the BLS should also show weakness and that might provide some relief.
Robert J. Smith
Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage
Rates will be relatively unchanged over the next week, absent a surprise on Friday’s employment data.