Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Jan. 23 - 29, 2025
Written by
| Go up | 13% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 33% |
| Go down | 53% |
Rates could fall over the next week, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 53 percent of respondents predict rates to drop, 33 percent expect rates to stay flat and 13 percent say rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.06 percent as of Jan. 22, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down from 7.19 the previous week.
Estimate your monthly mortgage payment based on current rates using this calculator.
Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Jan. 23 - 29, 2025
| Go up | 13% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 33% |
| Go down | 53% |
In the last week, the yield on 10-year Treasurys [has been] down over 20 basis points. Long-term mortgage rates can be expected to follow.
— Ken Johnson, University of Mississippi
13% say rates will go up
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
Higher. Watch for the stock market to react favorably to the inauguration of President Trump. As the stock market gains momentum, the bond market will weaken as money flows into equities. That money outflow of bonds will drive pricing higher. Look for rates to rise modestly over the next two quarters.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama
Mortgage rates will likely tick upward given the strength of the stock market.
53% say rates will go down
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates have dropped a bit and look to remain lower this week. With little economic data and no signs of new tariffs, borrowers should take advantage of this dip.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m anticipating a decline in prevailing mortgage rates in the week ahead, as volatility fades in the wake of increased certainty regarding President Trump’s economic agenda.
Dan Green
Licensed mortgage originator at Homebuyer.com, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , OH
There's chatter that the Fed may return to buying mortgage bonds. Rumors like that help push rates down.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
In the last week, the yield on 10-year Treasurys [has been] down over 20 basis points. Long-term mortgage rates can be expected to follow. Next week, 30- and 15-year mortgage rates should decline.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Lower. Weak Leading Economic Indicators point to a weaker-than-wanted economy and lower interest rates.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
Somewhat light week in terms of economic reports — see rates moving slightly lower by week-end.
Greg McBride, CFA
Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL
Long-term bond yields are easing, as are mortgage rates, but only back to levels that were seen a month ago. Every bit helps though.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Lower.
33% say unchanged–
Michael Becker
Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD
Mortgage rates have continued to improve slightly this week. Lack of details on tariffs is the big reason bonds have rallied, and mortgage rates have dropped. However, it seems like rates have hit their temporary floor. It’s going to take economic data coming in on the weak side for bonds to rally and rates to drop further. With a lack of that type of economic data over the coming week, I think rates will hold at their current level.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
Mortgage rates in the week following the inauguration will likely remain sensitive to new policy signals, economic releases and bond market trends. Watch for any major policy announcements that could shift investor sentiment and drive bond yields. Without a significant surprise, rates may stay in a relatively close range to where they are now, inching slightly up or down in response to short-term market developments. Overall, flat.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Flat - The markets are getting confused about where inflation is going.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will go nowhere. Here’s a parody of “Don't Stop The Music,” the 2007 Rihanna hit. “Bonds wanna take Oil away, to escape into the music. Dollars let it play. Oil just can't refuse it, like Dollars to do this. Keep on rockin' to it. Please don't stop the music.” Expect mortgage rates to dance around in circles as the world watches oil prices and the value of the Dollar determine the effects of tariffs.