Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Jan. 16 - 22, 2025
Written by
| Go up | 25% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 8% |
| Go down | 67% |
Rates are headed downward, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents expect rates to drop over the next week. Additionally, 25 percent of respondents think rates will rise, and just 8 percent expect rates to go nowhere.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.19 percent as of Jan. 15, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from 7.08 last week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Jan. 16 - 22, 2025
| Go up | 25% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 8% |
| Go down | 67% |
Core inflation readings provided a ray of hope that should bring bond yields and mortgage rates off the boil, for now.
— Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate
25% say rates will go up
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
Since the Fed’s announcement of a 50-basis point cut in September of last year, 30-year mortgage rates have risen over 100 basis points. It was not supposed to happen this way. However, worries over the extreme level of Federal debt have caused the price of 10-year Treasurys to fall, resulting in higher 10-year yields as we have moved forward to the present. In turn, higher 10-year yields have caused elevated long-term mortgage rates. There will come a time when lending rates will fall, but it will not be this week. Next week, 30-year mortgage rates will increase once again.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. Mortgage rates have been trending upward, following the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate, and I expect that trend to continue. Even with political changes happening, I don’t expect to see notably lower mortgage rates until we get clarity on the overall economic picture.
67% say rates will go down
Michael Becker
Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD
Mortgage rates at the beginning of 2025 have continued their trajectory of late 2024, which was higher. Better-than-expected economic data and concern about the potential inflationary impacts of the Trump administration’s policies have been the catalyst for higher rates. However, core inflation came in lower than expected in today’s CPI, and bonds are rallying and mortgage rates are falling. I think this trend of lower rates will continue into next week as the move higher in rates seems to have been a bit overdone.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
The financial markets breathed a big sigh of relief as December’s wholesale inflation number was better than expected, dropping to 3.2 percent on an annual basis. Mortgage rates have followed suit and rates will be lower in the coming week.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m looking for rates to decline in the week ahead as traders reset their long-term rate forecasts in the wake of updated inflation data.
Dan Green
Licensed mortgage originator at Homebuyer.com, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , OH
Down. There's been a lot of zig-zag action in mortgage rates this month. I'm expecting to see a zag.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Lower. We will likely see rates move down slightly after we see some important fundamentals: CPI, Retail Sales and Industrial Production.
Joel Naroff
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , PA
Down. Rates have risen more than enough, though where the top may be is anyone’s question.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody of “Harder, Better, Faster, Stronger,” the 2001 Daft Punk hit. “Work it. See it. Do it. Harder, better, faster and stronger. Work it harder, hedge it better.” A correction to the recent rise in rates should be no surprise. The fall in the Fed's anticipated ease is an overreaction to the tariff talk.
Greg McBride, CFA
Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL
Core inflation readings provided a ray of hope that should bring bond yields and mortgage rates off the boil, for now.
8% say unchanged–
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
With lingering inflation yet to be contained and the surprisingly strong job data last week, temporarily, we will be seeing higher rates. This is not the data we needed to get another rate cut from the Fed. Be patient. Everything is a cycle but, in the meantime, expect rates to stay elevated. My prediction for the week ahead is flat.