Rates are likely to fall, predicts the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate this week.
Of those polled, 60 percent of respondents expect rates to drop. Just 30 percent predict rates will stay flat, and the remaining 10 percent say rates will rise.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.84 percent as of Feb. 26, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, falling from 7.00 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Feb. 27 - March 5, 2025
| Go up | 10% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 30% |
| Go down | 60% |
Additional concerns that massive layoffs and spending cuts in the Federal government will cause a rapid downshift in economic activity have led many to believe that the economy is about to have the rug pulled out from underneath it, which will cause rates to continue to fall.
— Melissa Cohn, William Raveis Mortgage
10% say rates will go up
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
What drove last week’s massive selloff in the equity markets might be a mystery to many. However, what happened in the bond market and with mortgage rates is straightforward. Investors, when unwinding an equity position, typically park their proceeds from selling equities in the bond markets, in general, and in 10-year Treasury bonds, in particular. Thus, last week we saw bond prices bid up, driving down their yields. Long-term mortgage rates follow bond yields and are highly correlated to the yield on the 10-year Treasury. So, 30-year mortgage rates went down rather quickly last week. However, as money finds its way back into public equities and other private investments, we will see a corresponding rise in Treasury yields with mortgage rate increases soon to follow. Next week, we will see an increase in 30-year mortgage rates.
60% say rates will go down
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are going down this week. Recent economic data has pointed to a cooling U.S. economy and bond yields have tumbled to their lowest level in three months. Consumer confidence and the Philly Fed services index are just two of the most recent reports that fell short of expectations. Additional concerns that massive layoffs and spending cuts in the Federal government will cause a rapid downshift in economic activity have led many to believe that the economy is about to have the rug pulled out from underneath it, which will cause rates to continue to fall.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I expect rates to improve in the coming week, with traders continuing to react to an increasingly risk-off market environment.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Lower. We have started the downward correction to rates which were held high by Fed policy.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
Predict rates to end the week lower as economic reports/surveys continue to disappoint and not meet expectations.
Les Parker, CMB
Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL
Mortgage rates will drift. Here’s a parody of “It’s Over,” the 1964 operatic rock ballad by the drama-ballad king, Roy Orbison. “What breaks Oil’s heart in two? To know war's ending soon? What will Ukraine do? When Bucks say to you, there's someone new? 'We're through, we're through.' It's over.” Do not be surprised with another 20 bps drop in mortgage rates, but it might take two weeks instead of one. It depends on Oil dropping as peace breaks out in Ukraine, and Gaza does not explode into the Oil shipping lanes.
Preetam Purohit
CFA, Head of hedging and analytics, Embrace Home Loans , Newport , RI
Rates have rallied in the past week and [I am] expecting the rally to continue. There is no particular data except for the consumer confidence today, which has led to the rally. It seems like the new administration is trying to convince bond traders to lower the interest rates in the 5- to 10-year part of the Treasury curve to bring the cost down for the Treasury interest payments.
30% say unchanged–
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
Look for rates to balance out near these levels. With the fast pace of movement in the stock/equities market, look for investors to focus on maximizing and shifting positions within those markets. That will leave the bond market relatively quiet until the next round of major economic news releases.
Dr. Anthony O. Kellum
President & CEO, Kellum Mortgage , Roseville , MI
In my opinion, interest rates are likely to hold steady based on current market conditions. That said, key economic data releases this week could sway expectations.
Robert J. Smith
Chief Economist, GetWYZ Mortgage
Rates are at three-month lows, expect them to be relatively unchanged through next week, pending jobs data on March 7.