Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Dec. 19 - 25, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 73% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 9% |
| Go down | 18% |
Even with this week’s Fed rate cut, expect mortgage rates to rise, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 73 percent of respondents predict rates to edge higher, 18 percent expect rates to drop and 9 percent say rates will stay flat.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.91 percent as of Dec. 18, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, up from 6.78 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Dec. 19 - 25, 2024
| Go up | 73% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 9% |
| Go down | 18% |
Given the recent run-up in the 10-year treasury rate, I expect mortgage rates to follow upward until we get some clarity about the Trump administration’s policies and the willingness of the Fed to go along.
— Sean Salter, Middle Tennessee State University
73% say rates will go up
Michael Becker
Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD
reasury yields and mortgage rates are rising despite the Fed cutting its overnight lending rate by 0.25 percent. The rate cut was expected, but the future path of rate cuts was uncertain. With their statement and new dot plot, the Fed let markets know that there will likely be fewer rate cuts in 2025 than were expected earlier this year. With progress on inflation slowing and the economy and labor market still showing strength, this makes sense. They “will carefully assess incoming data” when “considering the extent and timing” of additional rate cuts. This will put upward pressure on rates, so mortgage rates will be higher in the coming week.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
As expected, the Fed lowered rates again by 0.25 percent — it also lowered its expectations for rate cuts in 2025. Bonds are not happy, and it looks like rates will head higher into the Christmas holiday. Bah Humbug!
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m expecting rates to rise in the week ahead, as thinly staffed trading desks react to minimal newsworthy events.
Derek Egeberg
Branch Manager, MortgageOne , Yuma , AZ
As stocks climb and the rumors swirl about the Fed’s potential rate cut, look for bonds to worsen, causing mortgage rates to continue to rise the rest of the year.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi
During the middle of Fed Chair Powell’s comments, the 10-year Treasury yield was rising. As we know, long-term mortgage rates tend to follow 10-year Treasury yields, making next week’s prediction easy. Next week, 30- and 15-year mortgage rates will increase.
Richard Martin
Director of Home Lending, Curinos
I expect rates to end the week higher. I think the Fed, in their announcement, will indicate a slower pace of future cuts than expected, and thus cause yields/rates to move higher.
Greg McBride, CFA
Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL
The mantra for 2025 is ‘higher for longer.’ Compared to three months ago, the Fed doesn’t plan to cut interest rates as often, and they don’t expect inflation to come down as quickly.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. The mortgage market had priced in a 25 basis point cut, and that’s what the Fed delivered. Given the recent run-up in the 10-year treasury rate, I expect mortgage rates to follow upward until we get some clarity about the Trump administration’s policies and the willingness of the Fed to go along.
18% say rates will go down
Dan Green
Licensed mortgage originator at Homebuyer.com, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , OH
There's no holiday slowdown for mortgage rates. Expect volatility while markets sort through the Federal Reserve's latest forecast.
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
The fact that the Fed lowered the overnight rate shows that their long-term intention is to move interest rates a bit lower. We need to let markets adjust to the new administration.
9% say unchanged–
Mitch Ohlbaum
Mortgage Banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA
Unchanged, no matter what the Fed does or doesn’t do. The market and the Fed are in a bit of a conundrum: They have lowered rates and yet the bond market comes down slightly and then bounces back up. The economic information continues to show a healthy economy with strong retail sales, and employment seems fairly steady with some sectors faring better than others. This could be a bump from the exuberance of the election, or maybe not, and it is here to stay. Ninety percent plus of the experts are saying the Fed will lower [rates], but I believe, given the recent strength of the economy, Chairman Powell may wait this one out.