Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Oct. 31 - Nov. 6, 2024
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| Go up | 67% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 13% |
| Go down | 20% |
Rates are going to keep moving up into election week, say the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 67 percent of respondents expect rates to rise in the next week. Just 20 percent predict rates will fall, with the remaining 13 percent saying rates will be unchanged from this week.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 6.88 percent as of Oct. 30, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, ticking up from 6.78 the previous week.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of Oct. 31 - Nov. 6, 2024
| Go up | 67% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 13% |
| Go down | 20% |
The trend has not been our friend. Mortgage rates continue to march upward as economic data and the uncertainty about the election are front and center.
— Melissa Cohn, William Raveis Mortgage
67% say rates will go up
Michael Becker
Branch manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , Maryland
Mortgage rates for the coming week will in large part be dictated by the October Non-Farm Payroll report. If the number comes in much higher than expected like last month’s report, bonds will sell off and mortgage rates will be higher. While there is no correlation between the just released ADP payroll report and the Non-Farm Payroll report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the fact that ADP came in higher than expected and most economic reports have been showing strength of late leads me to believe this month’s payroll report will show similar strength. Because of this, I expect mortgage rates to be higher in the coming week.
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
The trend has not been our friend. Mortgage rates continue to march upward as economic data and the uncertainty about the election are front and center. The ADP report revealed that 233,000 new jobs were created in October, more than double the 113,000 expected. Friday’s report, if near that number, could make the Fed think twice about another rate cut in November or perhaps take a more hawkish stance.
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m anticipating rates to continue to rise in the coming week, as traders increasingly focus on the upcoming presidential election.
Ken Johnson
Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi.
Is it uncertainty over the presidential election? Is it capital fleeing the Treasury markets for equities and other private investments? Is it worries over inflation reigniting? Well, it really does not matter, in terms of mortgage rates. Clearly, there is a sell-off in Treasurys, which is driving yields up. Mortgage rates will quickly follow. Next week, we can expect to see an increase in long-term mortgage rates.
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers
Again, the market is still confused with data… Or the data is being miscalculated, giving conflicting sentiments to the treasury markets. With the jobs reports coming in higher than expected and the unpredictable markets, I expect to see rates go up in the week ahead.
James Sahnger
Mortgage planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , Florida
Since the day before the Fed lowered the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points, the yield on the 10-year has risen 60 basis points. From an economic news perspective, much of this has come from the stronger-than-anticipated employment report, CPI, Consumer Confidence and spiraling national debt. The bond markets don’t like it and have responded accordingly. There is a lot of data coming in the next few weeks coupled with the elections on Tuesday. Look for rates to increase a little from here.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. Rates in the mortgage market seem to have decoupled from Fed rates, if only temporarily, and both bond markets and mortgage markets seem to be headed higher. Reports that 2024 Q3 GDP growth was slower than expected is not a good sign for the U.S. economy and certainly not a good sign for additional rate cuts in the short term. Compounding this issue is the real possibility that banks may have also figured out that they cannot maintain their profitability at lower residential mortgage rate levels, given reported issues in commercial mortgage markets. It’s clear that mortgage lenders want to lure prospective home buyers — who seem to be sitting on the sidelines — back into the residential markets, but I don’t think anything significant [will] happen, at least until we know the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
Robert J. Smith
Head of Real Estate, Advisor Credit Exchange
Rates will remain choppy due to jobs data (on Friday) and the election next week. Expect upward pressure in light of the volatility.
Nancy Vanden Houton, CFA
CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Stone & McCarthy Research Associates , New York , NY
Higher.
20% say rates will go down
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
[It's] time for a breather after a big run-up in rates over the past month. [It] may only be short-lived if economic data come in stronger than expected, if inflation concerns rise or if worries about increasing government debt persist.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Down. Inflation continues to trend downward despite strong growth.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody of “Revolution,” the 1968 Beatles hit. “Bears say they want a Revolution. But if they go carrying pictures of Chairman Xi. He ain’t going to save the G-7 until they see. Don’t they know bulls gonna be alright?” China’s stimulus clarification, European economic sluggishness and the rise of U.S. political certainty will usher in a reversal of mortgage rates for the next two months beginning by Nov. 6.
13% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. October was a nightmare month for rates but hopefully, Halloween will end that. Look for rates to be flat this week with downward pressure afterward.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Mortgage rates remain the same until after the election.