Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for Jan. 30 - Feb. 5, 2025

Robert Brusca

Chief Economist, Facts and Opinions Economics , New York , NY

Higher.

Denise McManus

Global Real Estate Advisor, Engel & Voelkers & Senior Lender, Xpert Home Lending, Engel & Voelkers

Given the Fed's decision to hold the fed funds rate steady at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable in the immediate future. Remember, the federal funds rate does not directly set mortgage rates — it influences them by affecting the overall cost of borrowing in the economy. The Fed's current stance suggests a cautious approach, balancing solid economic growth with concerns over persistent inflation. This looks to be a long game for dwindling interest rates of any proportion. Looking forward, mortgage rates may experience minor fluctuations due to market dynamics, but significant changes are unlikely unless unexpected economic data or geopolitical events arise. This is always a possibility, as we cannot control any of the influencers, especially globally. Expect rates to go up slightly in the week ahead.

Heather Devoto

Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA

We are anticipating rates to decline in the week ahead as traders continue to gain incremental certainty on President Trump’s economic agenda.

Dan Green

Licensed mortgage originator at Homebuyer.com, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , OH

Mortgage markets should benefit from general volatility on Wall Street. Look for safe-haven buying to ease interest rates down.

Ken Johnson

Walker Family Chair of Real Estate, University of Mississippi

 In the last two weeks, the worry among investors over the size of the U.S. debt seems to be dissipating among investors, resulting in a greater demand among bond investors for 10-year Treasurys. Not surprisingly, again, higher demand has sent Treasury yields and mortgage rates lower. As worry over the size of the debt continues to lessen, we should see falling long-term mortgage rates. Next week, mortgage rates will go down. As long as worry by bond investors over the size of U.S. debt continues to decline, we should see falling long-term mortgage rates.

Jeff Lazerson

President, MortgageGrader

Down. Markets are settling down with the new Trump administration.

Richard Martin

Director of Home Lending, Curinos

Expect rates to end the week lower, and not a result of the Fed's decision, ultimately — more focused on weaker corporate earnings and economic reports coming in softer than expected.

Les Parker, CMB

Managing Director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , FL

Mortgage rates will go down. Here’s a parody of “There’s a Kind of Hush,” popularized by Herman’s Hermits in 1967. “There's a kind of hush in the AI world tonight. All over the world, you can hear the sound of losers in shock. Stocks know what I mean.” The DeepSeek scare moved investors to U.S. Treasuries and mortgages, driving rates down.

James Sahnger

Mortgage Planner, C2 Financial Corporation , Jupiter , FL

The markets continue to settle following the inauguration. The Fed concludes its meeting Wednesday afternoon, and it is widely expected that they will not change the Fed Funds rate after decreasing it 1.00 percent over the last three meetings. One data point widely recognized as important each month is the BLS Jobs report. Markets trade on the strength or weakness of this number, and accuracy is paramount. Released today was the Business Employment Dynamics report from the BLS, and it stated that for Q2 2024, they overstated job creations by 38 percent, following some other mind-boggling reports from the past. It's hard not to wonder where rates would be today if their models didn't allow for such wide misses.

Michael Becker

Branch Manager, Sierra Pacific Mortgage , White Marsh , MD

The Fed reiterated today that their view is the economy is strong and the labor market is balanced, so they are in no hurry to make additional rate cuts. Any movement in mortgage rates is going to come from economic data that either confirms or refutes the Fed’s view of the economy. The next big economic report that could move rates in a significant way is not until next Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. So, I think rates will hold steady over the coming week.

Melissa Cohn

Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage

Mortgage rates remain rangebound as the Fed concludes its first meeting of 2025, leaving rates unchanged. Back to data watching for now!

Dick Lepre

Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA

Trend: Flat. The FOMC met and, as expected, held the overnight rate to the 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent target. The Fed's main goal appears to be keeping inflation low even at the expense of GDP.

Greg McBride, CFA

Chief Financial Analyst, Bankrate , North Palm Beach , FL

The Fed has short-term interest rates on hold until we see sustained progress toward 2 percent inflation. If mortgage rates are going to come down, inflation must come down. And lately, it has not.

Mitch Ohlbaum

Mortgage Banker, Macoy Capital Partners , Los Angeles , CA

Unchanged. Given that the Fed has left rates unchanged, I do not believe mortgage rates will move in either direction. The economy remains strong, is still driven by consumer demand and unemployment is steady. Until we see some change in these current indicators, I expect rates to also remain steady. With that said, any big changes in the new administration’s policies may also have a short-term effect on rates.

Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.

Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN

Unchanged. Although mortgage rates have risen and fallen over the month of January, we are essentially right back where we started the year in terms of the average 30-year fixed rate. Markets expected no action from the Fed, and markets got what they expected, for now.